The influence of Sino-US trade on polyester filament trade

As the end of the month approaches, next week, polyester filament yarns may have a lot of votes and rigid demand. The price changes will depend on changes in upstream raw materials such as PTA and MEG.
The Sino-US trade war continues to reignite, which may bring "storms and rains" to the trend of the polyester industry chain next week.
On the other hand, the current polyester filament terminal market has not improved significantly, and the wait-and-see attitude is obviously mainly based on rigid demand, and the production and sales data continue to be weak, with a slight accumulation of inventory during the week. Looking at the next week, the trend is more likely to happen.
Long and short stalemate on the cost side
The Sino-US trade war is constantly changing, and the cost of polyester filament is deadlocked. At present, the domestic PTA operating rate is maintained at 86.82%. In addition, the current inventory maintains 1.121 million tons, which is at a neutral level. The supply performance is acceptable. However, with the new installations of 2.5 million tons of Hengli and 2.2 million tons of Xinfengming, the supply may be in The loose pattern, coupled with the slight weakness of the current polyester and terminal industry stocks, the PTA market may fluctuate and weaken in the short term.

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In terms of ethylene glycol, the tight supply situation will continue, and the market will return to fundamentals again after the delivery at the end of the month. It is expected that the domestic ethylene glycol market will remain volatile in the short term.
Inventory rises under weak market transactions
In the past month, the center of gravity of the prices of all products in the polyester filament market has been relatively stable, and there have been no major fluctuations as in the previous period. At present, the average start-up of the polyester industry is 88.81%, an increase of 2.73% from the previous month. The device involving polyester filament is the recovery of the new Fengming device. Therefore, from the supply side, polyester filament has increased slightly; and in terms of production and sales, the current slightly The production and sales of mainstream factories are concentrated at about 40%-50%; under the sluggish production and sales, polyester yarn inventory has also increased unabated. Among them, POY inventory is 6-10 days, FDY inventory is around 12-18 days, and DTY inventory is around 12-18 days. To about 21-26 days.
On the demand side, the attitude is too strong
According to market research, with the advent of the "Golden Nine" traditional peak season, the orders for water jet looms have slightly warmed up compared with the previous period, and the new order replenishment situation is still normal; the Zhangcha area of ​​Dayuanji is experiencing the "Zhongyuan Festival" After the holiday, the operating rate has increased. The Keqiao area has not changed much from last week, and the operating conditions have been severely divided. The operating rate is 15% low and 100% high; the air-jet loom starts steadily and has a decline, mainly due to the gradual early orders It is exhausted, and the release of seasonal orders is slow.
In addition, the orders of some enterprises with foreign trade as the main body decreased by about 40% compared with the same period, and their operational confidence was insufficient. Judging from the sales situation, conventional products are rigorous in repressing the inventory, coupled with poor capital flow, and the outlook is relatively bearish.
To sum up: Under the renewed Sino-US trade war, the upstream raw materials may be weakly adjusted next week; from the demand side, although the downstream water spray, warp knitting, and circular knitting machine operating rates are still good, the purchasing department rigidly replenishes goods on demand Mainly, the production and sales of polyester filament in polyester factories are uneven